Rory McIlroy has a 4-stroke lead heading into the final round of The Masters. How significant is that? Four-stroke leads after three rounds of a major are rare. Going back to 1996, there have been 60 majors played, and in only nine of them did did a golfer have an outright lead of four strokes after three rounds.

However, if you leave out 4-stroke leads by Tiger Woods after three rounds, then it's happened only five times.

And of those five non-Tiger majors, that 4-stroke lead was lost three times. So three out of five times that third-round leader failed to win the tournament.

Here is the list of majors since 1996 in which there was a 4-stroke lead after three rounds:

• 2010 British Open: Louis Ooshuizen led by 4 (won by 7)
• 2002 U.S. Open: Tiger Woods led by 4 (won by 3)
• 2000 British Open: Tiger Woods led by 6 (won by 8)
• 2000 U.S. Open: Tiger Woods led by 10 (won by 15)
• 1999 British Open: Jean Van de Velde led by 5 (lost in playoff)
• 1998 U.S. Open: Payne Stewart led by 4 (lost by 1)
• 1997 Masters: Tiger Woods led by 9 (won by 12)
• 1996 British Open: Lehman led by 6 (won by 2)
• 1996 Masters: Greg Norman led by 6 (lost by 5)

Why did we use 1996 as the starting point? Because that's the year Greg Norman blew a 6-stroke lead in the final round of The Masters, eventually losing to Nick Faldo by five.

But the fact is, blowing leads in The Masters isn't that common in recent years. If you have the lead going into the final round (much less a 4-stroke lead), your chances of winning are pretty good. Since 1996, only five times has a golfer who held the outright lead after three rounds wound up losing the Masters:

• 2010: Lee Westwood led by 1 (Phil Mickelson won)
• 2007: Stuart Appleby led by 1 (Zach Johnson won)
• 2003: Jeff Maggert led by 2 (Mike Weir won)
• 1998: Fred Couples led by 2 (Mark O'Meara won)
• 1996: Greg Norman led by 6 (Nick Faldo won)

You'll notice that outside of Norman's collapse the biggest lead any third-round leader has lost at The Masters in the past 15 years is two strokes.

Rory McIlroy is a heavy favorite to win the tournament on Sunday, but there is also precedent for such leads to vanish.

4-Stroke Leads After 3 Rounds Rare in Majors, and Not Always Safe originally appeared on About.com Golf on Saturday, April 9th, 2011 at 20:57:12.

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